A report on dry bulk shipping

A report on dry bulk shipping Shipping is indubitably one of the fascinating industries in the world. It requires vast knowledge and skill to cop up with the day to day operations because of the complexity of the industry and its dependence on world economics. Dry Bulk ships carry dry cargoes in bulk from one port to another and can be categorised into handysize,  handymax,  panamax,  capesize, and very large bulk and ore carriers according to their sizes. The performance of the bulk shipping market depends on the demand for and supply of bulk shipping services, as well as the characteristics of the market structure. The importance of shipping cycle in case of dry bulk carrier is that they plays a vital part in the economics of shipping industry by managing the investment risk in an industry ,where there is large uncertainty about the future (Stopford,2009) Section 1 Literature Review One of the major aspects affecting the future of dry bulk shipping is the quality and the safety perspective. Nominal freight differentiation between quality and other tonnage has been observed occasionally and much services has been paid to promoting the need for younger and safer ships (Tamvakis  and Thanopoulou,2000) Another factor that can influence maritime flows of dry bulk commodity is seasonality patterns .Spot rates for bigger vessels shows higher seasonal variations compared to smaller vessels, although differences in seasonal fluctuations between sectors are removed as the contract duration increases.   (Kavussanos and Alizadeh,2001) Investing in shipping industry has an entirely new aspect by the introduction of private equity and the development of a hedging strategy, now this can be treated as a portfolio optimization problem. The freight futures provide a comparatively novel medium for hedging risk in  dry bulk  shipping markets. New uprising financial strategies in dry bulk shipping in future can revolutionize the entire market.( Cullinane,1995) Duration analysis done by Bijwaard G.E and Knapp.S provides an insight to the effectiveness of prolonging ship lives and the empirical data solidifies the idea about the life span of dry bulk carrier. Life span is an important aspect in predicting the ship cycle(Bijwaard and Knapp,2009)Scrapping of ship is done at a particular time and this is done when the ship is retired from the current use or when shipping cycle demands it. Gain and losses after the scrapping of a ship . entirely depends on the market condition. Demand of Dry bulk shipping is always related to the scrapping industry.(Knapp,2008) The Government is proposing that the UKs CO2 emissions should fall by at least 80% by 2050 . Release of exhaust gases and particles from oceangoing  ships is an important and growing provider to the total emissions from the transportation sector. New strategies like slow steam, alternate fuel and new logistic approach like jumbo ore carriers etc will be used in future to make the shipping sector more eco friendly(Eyring et al,2010) Research Hypothesis Marine flow of dry bulk goods in 2050 will be largely influenced on numerous factors and the background study done above concretes this statement. From the background study done above following hypothesis are made. The changing investment strategy like private equity and development of hedging strategy in worlds dry bulk shipping can promote the ship owners to invest in new ships and it can also attract new ship owners to the industry .If the scrapping doesnt goes in proportion with the production ,it could affect the supply and demand of dry bulk goods and there would be frequent interference of shipping cycle The design, tonnage and operation of dry bulks ships in 2050 can vary a lot from the present. Carriers like jumbo ore carriers and trend to containerisation can be the future of dry bulk shipping .Seasonality and size issues at present might be totally vanished in the future. Developed countries like United Kingdom are concentrating more on environmental issues caused by shipping industries and UKs target to reduce CO2 emission by 80% in 2050 can have great influence in marine transportation of dry bulk commodities. This is mainly because in future government may bring controls to ships having co2 emission more than 80% which can result in restricting ships entering into UK ports. Now this can lead to change in the flow of dry bulk goods in and out of UK. Both the demand for shipping services and shipping rates in 2050 will be positively related to the shipping cycle. Section 2 Data Analysis Origin of the data used in this research was mainly collected from Thomson Reuters Datastream, OECD.stat, Shipping Intelligence Network by Clarksons Research and United Nations Statistics Division.The other data source used in this research is Lloyds Shipping Economist The Shipping Intelligence Network according to Clarksons Research is one of the top on line commercial shipping database and almost all related data required for this research like Baltic Freight Index and the fleet size were collected from this source. Data required for shipping cycle are collected from Thomson Reuters DataStream which is according to their webpage the largest financial database in the world. Some data were also collected from OECD(Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and United Nations Statistics Division The data for the supply and demand are accessible from a centralised table called Supply and Demand Data in Lloyds economist. The data required for supply and demand of dry bulk carrier were collected from those tables for the current analysis of the bulk carrier market The time series that were taken from Lloyds shipping are stated below Total demand and supply of bulk carrier fleet in million DWT Total size of bulk carrier fleet adapting slow steaming strategy Total number of bulk carriers order book in million DWT The number of bulk carriers order book should be taken serious as there is an interval of two years from the order to the delivery. The data for supply and surplus of the fleet following slow steam strategy is either laid up or in-active are calculated in tons of dead weight To analyse the dry bulk shipping cycle it is useful to study how the key variables in this market have developed over time. It is very difficult to find the accurate measures of cycles ,representing the demand for shipping service and hence it not easy to find a relationship between dry bulk shipping and shipping cycle in general .To measure the freight rates in dry bulk shipping BFI(Baltic Freight Index) can be used (Glen and Rogers1997) Even though the BFI (Baltic Freight Index) ceased to exist when Baltic Exchange Dry Index was introduced, till today it has been calculated and reported by Clarksons Research Shelley (2003), As demonstrated in the Figure some striking changes are recorded in the freight rates of dry bulk shipping in recent years. The BFI reached at its maximum level in October 2007, followed by a dramatic fall in 2008.Figure(b) shows that the volatility of the freight rates have increased significantly after 2002-03 If a Comparison is done between figure 1 and figure 2 some similarities can be observed like increased freight rates in 2003-04 are matched by increasing total bulker sales and similarly the vice versa in the year 2005 and 2008 and hence a co-relation between freight rate and bulker sales can analysed from the above figures. Figures also expose a trend in increased volatility in total bulker sales during the period 2003-2008.c(Clarkson,2010) The augmented volatility in current years point towards that the fleet is almost equal to the current capacity limit. During the high capacity period, demand shocks have a great impact on freight rates. This can be a logical explanation of the hugely increased freight rates in the recent periods of boom in the world economy GDP for OECD, USA, Japan and China can be used to determine shipping cycles. The GDP of OECD is used as a alternative variable for world production, while the GDP of the US, Japan, and China represents the economic activity and demand for shipping services in three very important countries in world trade.(OECD,2010) The figures are based on data from the Shipping Intelligence Network by Clarksons Research and Thomson Reuters DataStream -2 All quarterly variables, the GDP of OECD, USA, Japan, and China from OECD stat helped us in finding that, these variables are non-stationary, as is the relevant time series for the Baltic Freight Index. The BFI from Clarkson led to the conclusion that all the shipping cycle are co related with the BFI.The sources that are used in this research gave us a larger perspective of the research objective and found out that, identifying the shipping cycle is a difficult process because there is much less previous researches done on this topic. Section 3 Demand and Supply Model for Dry Bulk shipping In present day there are number of models which have been developed to forecast and explain freight rate by examining the factors influencing the demand and supply of the respective services..Tinbergen(1934) model is considered to be one of the oldest econometric application.(Beenstock and Vergottis,1993).In new models the basic concept and idea are similar but the models have become more sophisticated by the application of new techniques . In 1980 a model was developed and presented in Strandenes and Wergeland which was named as NORBULK model. This model is considered to be one of the important econometric technique in predicting the freight rate in dry bulk shipping. The NORBULK model is based on the assumption that the demand for transportation of dry bulk commodities is determined by the freight rates, the trade patterns, and variables reflecting the macroeconomic situation A Graphical illustration of NORBULK model is shown above. From the illustration it is clear that demand and supply of dry shipping services are assumed to be influenced by the freight rate and at the same time equilibrium freight rates reflect the demand and supply of the shipping services. The model also explains the fact that macro economic conditions (the product capacity and cycle situation)influence the trade of bulk commodities which can alter the demand for transportation of dry bulk commodity. The speciality of NORBULK model from other models is that the other models are concentrated on major bulk commodities separately. The relation between trade and aggregated macroeconomic condition is one of the distinct features of NORBULK model. Supply part of the NORBULK model accounts for the size of the fleet, the fuel price, and the freight rates. The shape of the supply curve in a specific market reflects the relationship between the freight rate and the supply of shipping services, while, for instance, changes in the size of the fleet cause shifts in the supply curve. A characteristic shape of a supply curve in dry bulk shipping Ton miles is the measurement for supply and demand in sea transport and this is equal to the average haul multiplied by the tonnage of cargo (Strandenes and Wergeland, 1980) Shipping cycles are not cyclical or regular and hence in true world shipping predicting the shipping cycle are a loose sequence of up and downs and hence predictions in ship cycle is always a tough task. According to Cufley it is totally impossible to predict when the market will move upwards or fall. NORBULK is an example of a model based on the assumption that demand is inversely related to the freight rate. The relationship was estimated to be very inelastic, however. Still, Strandenes and Wergeland (1980) argue that it is potentially important to account for the price elasticity in both supply and demand. There are 10 variables in the demand and supply model which affect the demand for shipping and the supply of ships for the carriage of goods. The variable in the demand for ships are: The world economy, seaborne commodity trades, average haul, political event and transport cost. The variables for supply of ships are: World fleet, fleet productivity, ship building productions, scrapping and losses and freight rates.(Stopford,2010).Difficulty of analysing the above variables is daunting. The world economy is complex and sometimes we have to wait for years for the availability of the detailed statistics for accurate evaluation .Many of the variables mentioned above are highly un predictable and hence the forecasting must be considered as a process to clarify the risk rather than creating certainty. Working of NORBULK model is not focused on a particular commodity and it gives a general result which can be applicable to all the dry bulk carriers. New developed models used in dry bulk shi pping concentrates more on a specific commodity and there is always possibility that when modelling a particular commodity bulk carrier new models might be more accurate than NORBULK model. Assumptions made in developing the model sometimes can be far away from the reality and this can always result in wrong forecasting or prediction. Conclusion: It is always interesting to follow the future development of the dry bulk shipping market. In our opinion to understand the basic forces controlling the development of freight rates and shipping volume both econometric and theoretical analysis are very significant . On analysing the economic market we were able to understand the relations that are believed to exist between factors. We were also able to discover that the reason for shipping cycles to exist are the inelasticity of supply in shipping market which disables supply to meet the demand in the short run. Journals Bijwaard,G.E and Knapp,S (2009) Analysis of ship cycles The impact of economic cycles and ship inspections Journal on marine Policy, Vol 33, Issue 2, pp-(350-360) Cullinae,K(1995) A portfolio analysis of market investments in dry bulk shipping Transportation Research Part B: Methodological(June)Vol 29, Issue 3, pp 181-200 Eyeing,V(et, al)(2010) Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: Shipping The ATTICA Assessment Report (Dec)Vol 44,Issue 37,pp 4735-4771 Kaussanos,M.G and Alizadeh,A.H(2001) Seasonality patterns in dry bulk shipping spot and time charter freight rates Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review (December) Vol 37, Issue 6, pp 443-467 Knapp.S (et, al) (2008) Econometric analysis of ship demolition market Journal on Marine policy,) Vol 32, Issue 6, pp-( 1023-1036) Tamavakis,N.T and Thanopoulu,H.a(2000) Does quality pay? The case of the  dry bulk market Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, (December) Vol 36, Issue 4,pp 297-307 Books Stopford, M., 2009, Maritime Economics, 3rd edition, London, Routledge pp 64,424-427,512 Section 2 Clarkson (2010) Available from http://www.clarksons.com/services/overview/?serviceId=418 Accessed on 21st November 2010 Glen, D. R and Rogers, P(1997),Does weight matter? A statistical analysis of the SSY capesize index, Maritime policy and management,pp 24, 351-364 Lloyds Shipping Economist magazines London 2005-2010 Available from http://www.lloydslist.com/ll/sector/markets/lloyds-shipping-economist/ Accessed from 18th November 2010 O.E.C.D (2010) Available from http://oberon.sourceoecd.org/vl=6310340/cl=19/nw=1/rpsv/dotstat.htm. Accessed on 1st December 2010 Shelley, T( 2003) Chinas rapid expansion boosts world shipping industry, Financial Times, 25 November, pp 3 Thomson (2010) Avaialble From http://online.thomsonreuters.com/datastream/ Accessed on 5th December 2010 UNStats(2010) Available from http://unstats.un.org Accessed on 7th December 2010 Section 3 Beenstock, M., Vergottis, A., 1993, Econometric Modelling of World Shipping, london, Chapman Hall Stopford, M., 2009, Maritime Economics, 3rd edition, London, Routledge Wergeland, T. (1981). Norbulk: A simulation model of bulk freight rates. Working Paper 12, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration, Bergen, Norway

Ultimate Fighting Case Study

Ultimate Fighting Championship (Case 2) The following is an environmental analysis on the mixed martial arts (MMA) fighting competion, Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC). The parent company, Zuffa, LLC, since the UFC’s purchase, has been trying to legitimize UFC as a sanctioned sport and develop its international growth. The UFC has grown exceedingly in popularity since its founding in 1997. The first section of this report will cover an overview of trends in the segments of the general environment that are external to the company: political/legal, socio-cultural and global, economical, technological, and demographics.The second section will discuss how Under the UFC fits the aspects of Porters Five Forces. The final section will show the competitive and internal analysis along with success strategies. Political/Legal Segment Mixed Martial Arts has been around since the very first Olympics in Athens, Greece. Over time its popularity grew and more people became interested in this sport. The UFC was the first MMA organization that tried to popularize this sport. The original founders of this organization choose marketing techniques that made many people to question the ethics of the sport.There were no time limits, no weight classes, no mandatory safety equipment, and very few rules. As a result, MMA was banned from the majority of U. S. states and the founders decided to sell the organization. The buyers and second owners of the UFC wanted to legitimize MMA as a sport. To do this, they asked states to regulate MMA and needed the government to create regulations and specific rules that fighters follow. Unified Rules and Other Important Regulations of Mixed Martial Arts were created. As of January 2011, MMA was regulated in almost every U. S. tate with the exception of Connecticut, Vermont, and New York. Socio-Cultural and Global Segment The socio-cultural aspect for the industry has to do with society’s attitude toward watching physical violence f or entertainment. MMA has a very loyal fan base. The UFC has done much to turn its image around and further increase viewership. They made Dana White, a former amateur boxer, trainer, and creator of the sports marketing agency, Dana White Enterprises, the face of the organization and part of the UFC brand. White’s popularity and status benefited the UFC’s image.MMA has increased its international presence with events in Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, and Germany to name a few. The MMA has also established television deals to bring the matches to various locations around the world. MMA competitions can now be viewed in Europe, Asia, Australia, South America, North America, and the Middle East. Economical Segment Economic factors can have both a positive and negative effect on the MMA industry. Because Mixed Martial Arts is a luxury and not a necessity, economic growth and recessions is one thing to consider.Economic growth brings more consumer spending and consu mers will be willing to spend more on tickets or PPV events. Economic recessions bring the exact opposite as consumers are willing to spend less on things that they do not need. Another thing to consider is the elasticity of demand. Since MMA events are not a necessity, consumers will not be willing to pay more when prices rise unless they are dedicated fans. Technological Segment The MMA industry depends heavily on technology for success. Television is the primary outlet for this industry.Live events are transmitted on PPV (pay-per-view) so fans who cannot physically be there can still watch it on television. Reality television shows like The Ultimate Fighter and the UFC Countdown are broadcast on Spike TV so fans can get to know the fighters outside of the Octagon. This industry also releases video games so fans can portray their favorite fighters. The UFC launched a video game called â€Å"UFC Undisputed† in 2009 and 2010 to promote upcoming PPV events. MMA organizations a nd fighters now have Twitter and Facebook accounts allowing fans to follow and be kept up to date on current news.Various amounts of MMA smart phone applications are also available in app stores. Demographic Segment The MMA industry looks to attract both males and females of any age and any ethnicity. The reasoning behind this is that everybody has a natural instinct of fighting; it is in our DNA and whether we choose to do it or not, we will always have that urge to fight. Although it is intended for everybody, men, typically between the ages of 18-34, are the main viewers and participators of MMA fights. The reasoning behind this is that males at a younger age are more risk-tolerant than males at older ages.There are very low percentages of female MMA viewers, however the females that do watch and participate in MMA are in the same age gap of 18-34. Organizations such as the UFC and Strikeforce mainly target this specific demographic as it is proven that males between those ages a re the main fans. Porter Five Forces Supplier Power (Low) The supplier power for the MMA industry is low. The main supplier within this industry is the fighters themselves. Fighters have generally low power in this industry.The main reasons for this are the lack of competition in this industry and the abundance of fighters willing to participate. Within this industry there is one dominant player and that is the UFC. This give this organization power over fighters willing to join this industry and fighters that are already in the industry. Most of the top fighters in this industry are signed to long term contracts further limiting their power. Since there are many fighters willing to join this industry the organization can take the time to pick and choose who they want.Barriers to Entry (High) The barriers to entry are surprisingly high. The main components these organizations need are fighters, a place to fight, and people who take interest in these fights. What makes this barrier t o entry high though is that the main organization in this industry is already well established. Competing against this organization is quite difficult and companies who have tried have failed. In this type of industry there is really only room for one organization such as similar professional leagues like the MLB and NBA.A new organization can very well get their name out there, but staying in the competition is hard. In order for a new organization to stay in business within this industry, the organization would have to bring something new and unique to the industry. Barriers to entry for fighters are considered high as well. Within this industry, well known fighters are already established and have contracts with existing organizations. New fighters interested to join this industry will have to go above and beyond to prove that they can compete with the top fighters.Competitive Rivalry (Degree of Rivalry) (Low) The competitive rivalry for the MMA industry is low. With the only maj or player in MMA being UFC it appears to have a monopoly on the industry. It has bought out most of its major competition such as Strikeforce, a kickboxing organization that stared in 1988, World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC), a MMA organization founded in 2001 focusing on smaller weight classes, and Pride Fighting Championships (Pride FC), a Japanese organization founded in 1997. Threat of Substitutes (High) The threat of substitutes for the MMA industry is high.The MMA industry is a focus of the sports industry, thus there are many alternatives. Hockey, football, baseball, basketball, and soccer can all be substitutes for MMA. In particular, hockey and football are aggressive sports that sometimes break out into violence. Since MMA is also entertainment based consumers can substitute it with movies, concerts, and video games. Buyer Power (Low-Moderate) The buyer power for the MMA industry is low to moderate. Consumers have low power in the MMA industry. In this industry, consumers ty pically buy tickets or pay a PPV fee to watch a live match.Buyers do not have options when purchasing tickets because tickets are usually sold at a fixed price and are typically sold from one venue. An option for a consumer could be a scalper, but scalpers usually sell the tickets at a higher cost than the original cost making buyer power even lower. In addition, MMA events are only shown live once. Consumers do not have the option to come back and watch it live later. Other MMA events will occur throughout the year, but that particular event will never be able to be seen live again. However, buyers can gain power if an organization decides to raise prices.MMA events are not a necessity so if prices rise, average consumers are less willing to pay more for tickets or PPV events. Competitor Analysis The UFC’s major competitors were PRIDE Fighting Championships (Pride FC), World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC), and Strikeforce. All three mentioned were all acquired by the UFC or Zuff a, LLC. As of late, the UFC does not have major competition in this industry. The UFC is clearly a monopolized organization and with this brings almost no competitors. Internal Analysis The UFC has had great success in the US and other foreign markets, such as Australia, and has a large fan base.With the success in Australia, Fertitta, the CEO of the UFC, has contemplated pursuing other international locales. To be successful the UFC has to find support for this type of combat based entertainment in other areas of the world. It also leads to the question, would different cultures be willing to accept the sport or would there simply be too much of a cultural gap between various audiences? Strategies of Success The UFC has already seen success internationally in many countries such as the UK, Australia, and Germany, just to name a few.The UFC should start expanding into other international areas. To do this the organization must look at the success of other sports. With China, an esta blished relationship is usually needed before any deals can be made. With the rise of the middle class and desire for Western luxuries though, the UFC has found an opening into the market. In India MMA has grown from a budding interest into a rich tradition of martial arts and hand-to-hand combat. In South Korea martial arts has been popular for more than 2,000 years and it is cited as one of the most recognizable cultural aspects of the country.With the UFC gaining popularity in these unique countries, it is apparent that the UFC can and should expand into other culturally diverse countries but with some patience. Alternative Strategies The UFC could also just choose to stay in countries where they already have a large fan base. Since it already has a large fan base in countries like Australia, it is easier for the UFC to grow a larger fan base in these areas. The organization also need not worry about government regulations or forging new relationships with these governments becau se they are already established.

Cognitive Reframing - 1566 Words

Cognitive Reframing: A Technique for Creating Change Hillary Fowler, September 5, 2011 * BSHS/322 * Amber Templain-Kuehn Cognitive-behavioral therapy is the theory that thoughts control behaviors and actions. It is the practice of teaching a client to change the way they think. In return it is believed in theory that their actions will change, behaviors will change, out looks will change. All these changes will happen without the outside influences being changed such as people, places, situations, or events. One of the large differences in cognitive-behavior therapy is the amount of trust between client and clinician. The client must trust the clinician and believe in changing thoughts and thought process. If the client†¦show more content†¦Evaluate these thoughts and figure out if they’re rational or not. If they’re â€Å"dysfunctional† thoughts or â€Å"regular† thoughts. With these, you are practicing cognitive reframing and gaining control over your moods. Hillary Fowler Cognitive behavioral therapy techniques are an interesting set of exercises that help modify a person s behavioral patterns. The behavioral patterns are modified in order to bring about positive changes in the personality. Cognitive therapy techniques are aimed at rectifying such deceptive cognition, thus, treating behavioral and emotional disorders.The therapist and patient both work together to find out a solution for the problem or a way in which the difficult situation, if it occurs in the future can be sorted out. The therapist asks the patient to rehearse positive thoughts cognitively in order to make appropriate changes to the latter s thought processes. Power of imagination proves to be of great use in such exercises. Modeling in when therapists perform role-playing exercises aimed at responding in a way that is helpful to overcome difficult situations. 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